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머튼 모델

머튼 모델

머튼 λͺ¨λΈμ΄λž€?

νšŒμ‚¬ λΆ€μ±„μ˜ μ‹ μš© μœ„ν—˜ 을 ν‰κ°€ν•˜λŠ” 데 μ‚¬μš©λ˜λŠ” 뢄석 λͺ¨λΈ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 뢄석가와 νˆ¬μžμžλŠ” Merton λͺ¨λΈμ„ ν™œμš©ν•˜μ—¬ νšŒμ‚¬κ°€ μž¬μ •μ  의무λ₯Ό μΆ©μ‘±ν•˜κ³ , 뢀채λ₯Ό μƒν™˜ν•˜κ³ , μ‹ μš© λΆˆμ΄ν–‰μ— 빠질 κ°€λŠ₯성을 κ°€λŠ ν•˜λŠ” 데 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ λŠ₯λ ₯이 μžˆλŠ”μ§€ μ΄ν•΄ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

μ½œμ˜΅μ…˜ 으둜 νšŒμ‚¬μ˜ μžκΈ°μžλ³Έμ„ λͺ¨λΈλ§ν•˜μ—¬ νšŒμ‚¬μ˜ ꡬ쑰적 μ‹ μš© μœ„ν—˜μ„ ν‰κ°€ν•˜λŠ” 이 λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ œμ•ˆν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€ . 이 λͺ¨λΈμ€ λ‚˜μ€‘μ— Fischer Blackκ³Ό Myron Scholes에 μ˜ν•΄ ν™•μž₯λ˜μ–΄ 노벨상을 받은 μ˜΅μ…˜μ— λŒ€ν•œ Black-Scholes 가격 μ±…μ • λͺ¨λΈμ„ κ°œλ°œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

머튼 λͺ¨λΈμ˜ 곡식은

<의미둠> E=V tN(d 1)βˆ’Ke< /mi>βˆ’rΞ”TN(d2<mo μšΈνƒ€λ¦¬="true">) μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ : d1=ln⁑ VtK+< mo fence="true">(r+Οƒv 22)Ξ” TΟƒvΞ”T</mtr 및 d2=d1βˆ’ΟƒvΞ”t</ mtd>E = νšŒμ‚¬ 자본의 이둠적 κ°€μΉ˜ Vt=t κΈ°κ°„μ˜ νšŒμ‚¬ μžμ‚° κ°€μΉ˜< /mtext>< /mtd>K = νšŒμ‚¬ 뢀채 κ°€μΉ˜t = ν˜„μž¬ κΈ°κ°„ T = 미래 κΈ°κ°„r = λ¬΄μœ„ν—˜ 이자율 N = λˆ„μ  ν‘œμ€€ μ •κ·œ 뢄포e = μ§€μˆ˜ ν•­(i.e. 2.7183...)</mtr Οƒ=주식 수읡λ₯ μ˜ ν‘œμ€€ 편차 \begin &E=V_tN\left(d_1\right)-Ke^{-r\Delta} N \left(d_2\right)\ &\textbf{μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ:}\ &d_1=\frac{\ln{\frac}+\left(r+\frac{\sigma_v^ 2 }{2}\right)\Delta}{\sigma_v\sqrt{\Delta}}\ &\text\ &d_2=d_1-\sigma_v\sqrt{\ Delta }\ &\text{E = νšŒμ‚¬ 자본의 이둠적 κ°€μΉ˜}\ &V_t=\text{κΈ°κ°„ t의 νšŒμ‚¬ μžμ‚° κ°€μΉ˜}\ &amp ; \text{K = νšŒμ‚¬ 뢀채 κ°€μΉ˜}\ &\text{t = ν˜„μž¬ κΈ°κ°„}\ &\text{T = 미래 μ‹œκ°„ λ‹Ή iod}\ &\text{r = λ¬΄μœ„ν—˜ 이자율}\ &\text{N = λˆ„μ  ν‘œμ€€ μ •κ·œ 뢄포}\ &\text{e = μ§€μˆ˜ ν•­}\left(즉, \text2.7183...\right)\ &\sigma=\text{주식 수읡λ₯ μ˜ ν‘œμ€€ 편차}\ \endμ—¬κΈ°μ„œ:<span class=" pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:4.1900200000000005em;">d<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이 :0. 30110799999999993em;">1 ​=< span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2777777777777778em;"><span class="mord Mathnormal" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="margin-right:0.03588em;">Οƒ<span class="mord mathnormal mtight" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="margin-right:0.03588em;">v<​<span 클래슀 ="vlist-r"></ 슀팬 ><span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:0.9266650000000001em;" > Ξ” T < 슀팬 클래슀 = hide-tail" style="min-width:0.853em;height:1.08em;">< 경둜 d='M95,702

c-2.7,0,-7.17,-2.7,-13.5,-8c-5.8,-5.3,-9.5,-10,-9.5,-14

c0,-2,0.3,-3.3,1,-4c1.3,-2.7,23.83,-20.7,67.5,-54

c44.2,-33.3,65.8,-50.3,66.5,-51c1.3,-1.3,3,-2.5,-2c4.7,0,8.7,3.3,12,10

s173,378,173,378c0.7,0,35.3,-71,104,-213c68.7,-142,137.5,-285,206.5,-429

c69,-144,104.5,-217.7,106.5,-221

l0-0

c5.3,-9.3,12,-14,20,-14

H400000v40H845.2724

s-225.272.467,-225.272.467s-235.486,-235.486c-2.7,4.7,-9.7,-19.7

c-6.0,-10,-1,-12,-3s-194,-422,-194,-422s-65.47,-65.47z

M834 80h400000v40h-400000z'/>​<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:0.11333499999999996em;"> < span class="mord">ln<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:0.8884309999999999em;"><span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:3em;">< /span><span class="mord mathnormal mtight" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ le="margin-right:0.07153em;">K<span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="높이:3em;">V< 슀팬 class="vlist" style="height:0.143em;"></ 슀팬> < span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222222222222222em;">+(r < span class="mbin">+<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이: 1.1341199999999998 em;"><span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ e="높이:3em;">2< /span><span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이: 3em;"><span class="mord mathnormal mtight" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ= "margin-right:0.03588em;">Οƒ<span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ= "높이:2.5em;">v2</ span><span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="높이:0.286em;"> 슀팬><span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:0.345em;">< 슀팬> )< span class="mord">Ξ”T< /span><span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="높이 :0.9666650000000001em;"></ 슀팬>및d< span class="msupsub"><슀팬 μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="상단:-2.5500000000000003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;">2<​< / 슀팬></s 팬>= d1​</ span>βˆ’<span class="mord mathnormal" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="μ—¬λ°±-였λ₯Έμͺ½: 0.03588em;">Οƒ<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ= "높이:0.151392em;"><span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:2.7em ;">v < λ²”μœ„ class="pstrut" style="height:3em;">Ξ” <슀팬 클래슀 ="pstrut" tyle="height:3em;"><svg λ„ˆλΉ„='400em' 높이='1.08 em' viewBox='0 0 400000 1080' reservedAspectRatio='xMinYMin 슬라이슀'><경둜 d='M95,702

c-2.7,0,-7.17,-2.7,-13.5,-8c-5.8,-5.3,-9.5,-10,-9.5,-14

c0,-2,0.3,-3.3,1,-4c1.3,-2.7,23.83,-20.7,67.5,-54

c44.2,-33.3,65.8,-50.3,66.5,-51c1.3,-1.3,3,-2.5,-2c4.7,0,8.7,3.3,12,10

s173,378,173,378c0.7,0,35.3,-71,104,-213c68.7,-142,137.5,-285,206.5,-429

c69,-144,104.5,-217.7,106.5,-221

l0-0

c5.3,-9.3,12,-14,20,-14

H400000v40H845.2724

s-225.272.467,-225.272.467s-235.486,-235.486c-2.7,4.7,-9.7,-19.7

c-6.0,-10,-1,-12,-3s-194,-422,-194,-422s-65.47,-65.47z

M834 80h400000v40h-400000z'/>​<span class="vlist" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:0.06445999999999996em;"> E = νšŒμ‚¬ 자본의 이둠적 κ°€μΉ˜< span class="mord">V<span class="pstrut" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:2.7em;">< span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight">​ =κΈ°κ°„ t의 νšŒμ‚¬ μžμ‚° κ°€μΉ˜ K = νšŒμ‚¬ 뢀채 κ°€μΉ˜</ 슀팬>t = ν˜„μž¬ κΈ°κ°„T = 미래 κΈ°κ°„ r = λ¬΄μœ„ν—˜ 이자율</ 슀팬>N = λˆ„μ  ν‘œμ€€ μ •κ·œ 뢄포<슀팬 클래슀 ="mord text">e = μ§€μˆ˜ μš©μ–΄<span class="mopen delimcenter" μŠ€νƒ€μΌ ="top:0em;">(i. . 2.71<span class="mord " ">83..<span 클래슀 = "mord">.)Οƒ=주식 수읡λ₯ μ˜ ν‘œμ€€ 편차 <span class=" vlist " μŠ€νƒ€μΌ="높이:11.321778em;">

νšŒμ‚¬ 주식이 $210.59에 νŒ”λ¦¬κ³  μ£Όκ°€ 변동성이 14.04%, 이자율이 0.2175%, 행사 가격이 $205이고 만료 μ‹œκ°„μ΄ 4일이라고 κ°€μ •ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. 주어진 κ°’μœΌλ‘œ λͺ¨λΈμ— μ˜ν•΄ μƒμ„±λœ 이둠적 μ½œμ˜΅μ…˜ 값은 -8.13μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.

Merton λͺ¨λΈμ€ 무엇을 λ§ν•©λ‹ˆκΉŒ?

λŒ€μΆœ λ‹΄λ‹Ήμž 와 주식 λΆ„μ„κ°€λŠ” Merton λͺ¨λΈμ„ ν™œμš©ν•˜μ—¬ κΈ°μ—…μ˜ μ‹ μš© λΆˆμ΄ν–‰ μœ„ν—˜μ„ λΆ„μ„ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이 λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λ©΄ νšŒμ‚¬λ₯Ό 보닀 μ‰½κ²Œ 평가할 수 있으며 뢄석가가 만기 λ‚ μ§œ 와 뢀채 총앑 을 λΆ„μ„ν•˜μ—¬ νšŒμ‚¬κ°€ 지급 λŠ₯λ ₯을 μœ μ§€ν•  수 μžˆλŠ”μ§€ νŒλ‹¨ν•˜λŠ” 데 도움이 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€ .

κΈ°κ°„ λ™μ•ˆ μ§€κΈ‰λ˜λŠ” λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„ κ³ λ €ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šκ³  μœ λŸ½μ‹ ν’‹ 및 콜 μ˜΅μ…˜ 의 이둠적 가격을 κ³„μ‚°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 이 λͺ¨λΈ 은 기초 μ£Όμ‹μ˜ 배당락일 κ°€μΉ˜λ₯Ό 계산 ν•˜μ—¬ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„ κ³ λ €ν•˜λ„λ‘ μ‘°μ •ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€ .

Merton λͺ¨λΈμ€ λ‹€μŒκ³Ό 같은 κΈ°λ³Έ 가정을 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • λͺ¨λ“  μ˜΅μ…˜μ€ μœ λŸ½μ‹μ΄λ©° λ§ŒκΈ°μ‹œμ—λ§Œ ν–‰μ‚¬λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ΄ μ§€κΈ‰λ˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • μ‹œμž₯ μ›€μ§μž„μ€ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€(효율적인 μ‹œμž₯).

  • μ»€λ―Έμ…˜μ€ ν¬ν•¨λ˜μ–΄ μžˆμ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • 기초 μ£Όμ‹μ˜ 변동성과 λ¬΄μœ„ν—˜ κΈˆλ¦¬λŠ” μΌμ •ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • 기초 주식에 λŒ€ν•œ 수읡λ₯ μ€ μ •κΈ°μ μœΌλ‘œ λΆ„λ°°λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

κ³΅μ‹μ—μ„œ 고렀된 λ³€μˆ˜λŠ” μ˜΅μ…˜ 행사가격, ν˜„μž¬ κΈ°μ΄ˆκ°€κ²©, λ¬΄μœ„ν—˜μ΄μžμœ¨, λ§ŒκΈ°κΉŒμ§€μ˜ μ‹œκ°„μ„ ν¬ν•¨ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λΈ”λž™μˆ„μ¦ˆ λͺ¨λΈ λŒ€ 머튼 λͺ¨λΈ

Robert C. Merton 은 유λͺ…ν•œ λ―Έκ΅­ κ²½μ œν•™μžμ΄μž 노벨상 μˆ˜μƒμžλ‘œ 10세에 첫 주식을 μ μ ˆν•˜κ²Œ κ΅¬μž…ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. λ‚˜μ€‘μ— κ·ΈλŠ” Columbia Universityμ—μ„œ 이학 학사, California Institute of Technology(Cal Tech)μ—μ„œ 이학 석사 ν•™μœ„λ₯Ό λ°›μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. , MIT(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)μ—μ„œ κ²½μ œν•™ 박사 ν•™μœ„λ₯Ό μ·¨λ“ν•œ ν›„ 1988λ…„κΉŒμ§€ ꡐ수둜 μž¬μ§ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. MITμ—μ„œ κ·ΈλŠ” 금육 μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ ν™œμš©λ  획기적인 아이디어λ₯Ό κ°œλ°œν•˜κ³  λ°œν‘œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

Merton이 MITμ—μ„œ κ·Όλ¬΄ν•˜λŠ” λ™μ•ˆ Blackκ³Ό ScholesλŠ” μ˜΅μ…˜μ„ ν—€μ§•ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨ 체계적인 μœ„ν—˜μ΄ μ œκ±°λœλ‹€λŠ” μ€‘μš”ν•œ 톡찰λ ₯을 κ°œλ°œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 그런 λ‹€μŒ Merton은 μ˜΅μ…˜μ„ ν—€μ§•ν•˜λ©΄ λͺ¨λ“  μœ„ν—˜μ„ μ œκ±°ν•  수 μžˆμŒμ„ λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” νŒŒμƒ μƒν’ˆμ„ κ°œλ°œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. Blackκ³Ό ScholesλŠ” 1973λ…„ λ…Όλ¬Έ "μ˜΅μ…˜ 및 κΈ°μ—… λΆ€μ±„μ˜ 가격 μ±…μ •"μ—μ„œ κ³΅μ‹μ˜ νŒŒμƒλ¬Όμ„ μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” Merton의 λ³΄κ³ μ„œλ₯Ό ν¬ν•¨ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. Merton은 λ‚˜μ€‘μ— κ³΅μ‹μ˜ 이름을 Black-Scholes λͺ¨λΈλ‘œ λ³€κ²½ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

##ν•˜μ΄λΌμ΄νŠΈ

  • Merton λͺ¨λΈμ€ κΈ°λ³Έ μœ„ν—˜κ³Ό νšŒμ‚¬ μžμ‚° κ°„μ˜ ꡬ쑰적 관계λ₯Ό μ œκ³΅ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • 이 방법을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λ©΄ Black-Scholes-Merton μ˜΅μ…˜ 가격 μ±…μ • λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ‚¬μš©ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.

  • 1974λ…„ Robert Merton은 μžμ‚°μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ½œμ˜΅μ…˜μœΌλ‘œ νšŒμ‚¬μ˜ μžκΈ°μžλ³Έμ„ λͺ¨λΈλ§ν•˜μ—¬ νšŒμ‚¬μ˜ μ‹ μš© μœ„ν—˜μ„ ν‰κ°€ν•˜λŠ” λͺ¨λΈμ„ μ œμ•ˆν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.