過去のボラティリティ(HV)
##ãã¹ããªã«ã«ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ïŒHVïŒãšã¯äœã§ããïŒ
ãã¹ããªã«ã«ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ïŒHVïŒã¯ãç¹å®ã®æéã«ãããç¹å®ã®èšŒåžãŸãã¯åžå Žææ°ã®ãªã¿ãŒã³ã®åæ£ã®çµ±èšç尺床ã§ããäžè¬ã«ããã®æž¬å®å€ã¯ãç¹å®ã®æéã«ãããéèååã®å¹³åäŸ¡æ Œããã®å¹³ååå·®ãæ±ºå®ããããšã«ãã£ãŠèšç®ãããŸããæšæºåå·®ã䜿çšããã®ãæãäžè¬çã§ãããéå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ãèšç®ããå¯äžã®æ¹æ³ã§ã¯ãããŸãããéå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£å€ãé«ãã»ã©ãã»ãã¥ãªãã£ã®ãªã¹ã¯ãé«ããªããŸãããã ãããªã¹ã¯ã¯åŒ·æ°ãšåŒ±æ°ã®äž¡æ¹ã®æ¹æ³ã§æ©èœãããããããã¯å¿ ãããæªãçµæã§ã¯ãããŸããã
##éå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ïŒHVïŒãçè§£ãã
éå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ã¯ãæå€±ã®å¯èœæ§ãå ·äœçã«æž¬å®ãããã®ã§ã¯ãããŸããããæž¬å®ããããã«äœ¿çšããããšã¯ã§ããŸãããããæž¬å®ããã®ã¯ã蚌åžã®äŸ¡æ Œããã®å¹³åå€ããã©ãã ãé¢ããŠãããã§ãã
ç§»åå¹³åã®äŸ¡æ Œããã©ãã ãé¢ããŠããããæž¬å®ããŸããããã¯ãäŸ¡æ Œãæéãšãšãã«åçã«å€åããå Žåã§ãã匷ããã¬ã³ãã§ãããã¹ã ãŒãºãªåžå Žã§ã¯ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ãäœããªãå¯èœæ§ãããæ¹æ³ã§ãããã®äŸ¡å€ã¯æ¥ã åçã«å€åããããšã¯ãããŸããããæéã®çµéãšãšãã«äžå®ã®ããŒã¹ã§äŸ¡å€ãå€åããŸãã
éå°è©äŸ¡ãããŠãããã倿ããããã«ãã€ã³ãã©ã€ããã©ãã£ãªãã£ãšé »ç¹ã«æ¯èŒãããŸããéå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ã¯ããã¹ãŠã®ã¿ã€ãã®ãªã¹ã¯è©äŸ¡ã§ã䜿çšãããŸããéå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ãé«ãæ ªåŒã¯ãéåžžãããé«ããªã¹ã¯èš±å®¹åºŠãå¿ èŠãšããŸãããŸãããã©ãã£ãªãã£ã®é«ãåžå Žã§ã¯ãããåºãã¹ããããã¹ã¬ãã«ãšãå Žåã«ãã£ãŠã¯ããé«ã蚌æ éèŠä»¶ãå¿ èŠã«ãªããŸãã
ãªãã·ã§ã³ã®äŸ¡æ Œèšå®ãšã¯å¥ã«ãHVã¯ããªã³ãžã£ãŒãã³ããªã©ã®ä»ã®æè¡ç ç©¶ã®å ¥åãšããŠãã䜿çšãããŸãããããã®ãã³ãã¯ãæšæºåå·®ã§æž¬å®ãããããã«ããã©ãã£ãªãã£ã®å€åã«å¿ããŠäžå€®å¹³åã®åšãã§çããªããæ¡å€§ããŸãã
##éå»ã®ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ã®äœ¿çš
ãã©ãã£ãªãã£ã«ã¯æªãæå³ããããŸãããå€ãã®ãã¬ãŒããŒãæè³å®¶ã¯ããã©ãã£ãªãã£ãé«ãã»ã©é«ãå©çãäžããããšãã§ããŸããçµå±ã®ãšãããæ ªåŒããã®ä»ã®èšŒåžãåããªãå Žåããã©ãã£ãªãã£ã¯äœããªããŸããããã£ãã¿ã«ã²ã€ã³ãåŸãå¯èœæ§ãäœããªããŸãããããŠããã®è°è«ã®å察åŽã§ã¯ããã©ãã£ãªãã£ã¬ãã«ãéåžžã«é«ãæ ªåŒããã®ä»ã®èšŒåžã¯ãè«å€§ãªå©çã®å¯èœæ§ãç§ããŠããŸãããè«å€§ãªã³ã¹ããããããŸããæå€±ã®å¯èœæ§ãéåžžã«å€§ããã§ããããååŒã®ã¿ã€ãã³ã°ã¯å®ç§ã§ãªããã°ãªããã蚌åžã®å€§å¹ ãªäŸ¡æ Œå€åãã¹ããããã¹ãŸãã¯ããŒãžã³ã³ãŒã«ãããªã¬ãŒããå Žåãæ£ããããŒã±ããã³ãŒã«ã§ãããéã倱ãããšã«ãªããããŸããã
ãããã£ãŠããã©ãã£ãªãã£ã¬ãã«ã¯äžéã®ã©ããã«ããã¯ãã§ããããã®äžéã¯åžå Žããšã«ãããã«ã¯æ ªåŒããšã«ç°ãªããŸãããã¢èšŒåžéã®æ¯èŒã¯ãã©ã®ã¬ãã«ã®å€åæ§ããæ£åžžãã§ãããã倿ããã®ã«åœ¹ç«ã¡ãŸãã